Identify Threats
Guidance
This section introduces the key steps in identifying threats to the power sector:
Threats-anything that can damage, destroy, or disrupt the power sector. Threats can be natural, technological, or human caused. Threats are not typically within the control of power system planners and operators. They can include wildfires, hurricanes, storm surges, cyberattacks, and more.
1. Assess Existing Conditions
An understanding of the existing conditions of the power sector in terms of location, operational practices, political threats, and other factors helps determine the ability of the power sector to respond and adapt under different operational conditions if a disruption were to occur1. This step is conducted to identify these conditions and highlight the assets that need to be protected under various planning scenarios. The assessment begins with stakeholder interviews, literature reviews, and data collection of resources, including (but not limited to):
- Integrated resource plans
- Emergency plans
- Maps and geographic data
- Utility information
- Historical data related to disasters, extreme temperatures, and grid outages
- Other available, relevant resources.
2. Identify Threats
Developing an understanding of the potential threats to a power system is important to enhancing resilience. Threats are identified for current and future power system conditions because the likelihood of different threats may change over the planning horizon. The following sections present an approach to identifying and defining threats to the power system.
Training Materials: Threats Introduction
These slides are intended to provide additional background information and examples of power system threats. They can serve simply as a reference or can be used in local power sector resilience assessment workshops.
Known or predicted threats must be identified to understand the potential impacts to the power sector and their likelihood of occurring. This information will be used later in this guidebook to evaluate risk, as part of the vulnerability assessment, and factor into the potential resilience efforts to consider in later steps. Threats are identified through literature reviews, climate data, and stakeholder interviews with power sector staff from organizations that include ministries of energy and environment, grid operators, utilities, meteorological services, emergency managers, and natural resource offices.
Additionally, resilience assessment teams should work with national environmental offices and local communities to determine the availability of existing threat assessments1. National planning resources can be used to identify threats related to water quality, river systems, floodplain management, and geology, such as landslide areas and earthquakes1. Power sector staff (e.g., grid operators, utilities staff, and ministries of energy) can provide professional judgment on likelihoods and impacts of technological and human-caused threats.
Understanding Power System Threats and Impacts
This quick read outlines power system threats and impacts. Understanding potential threats to a power system is an essential first step in supporting power sector resilience. It is important to assess both current and future threats, as well as the likelihood of these threats over time. Threats can be grouped in three categories: natural threats, technological threats, and human-caused threats.
Threats are typically categorized into three types: natural, technological, or human caused. Table 1 provides examples of threats in each category.
Table 1. Three Categories of Threats1
|
Natural |
Technological |
Human Caused |
|
Cyclones |
Infrastructure failure (because of aging, material defects, etc.) |
Accidents |
|
Floods |
Terrorism |
|
|
Earthquakes |
Poor workmanship or design |
|
|
Drought |
Unpredictable loads |
Political upheaval |
|
Wildfire |
Water-line disruption impacting power sector |
|
|
Wildlife interactions |
|
|
|
Solar flares |
|
|
Activity: Identifying Threats
Use this worksheet to identify potential threats that your power sector may face and assign each a likelihood score.
3. Score Threat Likelihoods
The next step in the process is to score the likelihood that each threat may occur. Later in the process, these scores will be combined with vulnerability scores to evaluate the overall risk to the power sector (refer to the Guide to Vulnerabilities and the Guide to Risk Assessments for further information).
The scores for each category of threat are assigned through the review of information from data collection and stakeholder interviews.
- Natural threat likelihood scores—assigned using a combination of documented natural threats and climate projections based on likelihood of occurrence assessed from the quality and consistency of data and the degree of agreement between different sources1.
- Technological and human-caused threat likelihood scores—assigned based on current understanding of conditions from information collected during stakeholder interviews1.
One approach to scoring threats is based on likelihood modeling, as outlined in Table 2.
Technological and human-caused threat scores are more likely to be dynamic and change on a regular basis than the natural threat scores. As a result, these scores are constantly shifting, and more resilient power sectors will be those that undertake an analysis of threats on a regular basis1.
Table 2. Scores and Descriptions for Scoring Threat Likelihoods
|
Threat Likelihood Scores |
Threshold Descriptions |
|
|
Categorical |
Numerical |
|
|
High |
9 |
Almost certain to occur. Historic and frequent occurrences. |
|
Medium-High |
7 |
More likely to occur than not. |
|
Medium |
5 |
May occur. |
|
Low-Medium |
3 |
Slightly elevated level of occurrence. Possible, but more likely not to occur. |
|
Low |
1 |
Very low probability of occurrence. An event has the potential to occur but is still very rare. |
Resources:
Activities
Identifying Threats
In this activity, you will identify potential threats that your power sector may face and assign each a likelihood score.
Training Materials
Threats Introduction
These slides are intended to provide additional background information and examples of power system threats. They can serve simply as a reference or can be used in local power sector resilience assessment workshops.
Data and Tools
RADE: Resilience Assessment & Data Explorer
The RADE tool can be used to assess site risks associated with potential resilience-related shortcomings of energy, water, transportation and communication systems. In order to assess these risks, the three components of risk, hazards and threats, vulnerabilities, and consequences, must be identified and/or characterized. This module steps through that process, and calculates risk for a specific site with the following equation: Weighted Risk = H * V * C * w.
Partnership for Resilience and Preparedness (PREP) Data
A crucial challenge in building resilience to climate change is the lack of access to useful, timely and credible data and information. This problem is exacerbated by a lack of feedback mechanisms to help data providers understand user needs. PREP addresses these challenges by opening the lines of communication between data providers and users–and by providing easy access to a curated set of data and tools, which is driven by user input.
The global risk analysis presented in the Global Assessment Reports is based on a joint effort by leading scientific institutions, governments, UN agencies and development banks, the private sector and non-governmental organizations. This interactive Risk Viewer provides the global risk data from the Global Assessment Reports, presented in an easily accessible manner.
DesInventar is a tool for generating National Disaster Inventories and constructing databases that capture information on damage, loss and general effects of disasters. With increased understanding of disaster trends and their impacts, better prevention, mitigation and preparedness measures can be planned to reduce the impact of disasters on the communities.
EM-DAT: The International Disaster Database
EM-DAT contains essential core data on the occurrence and effects of over 18,000 mass disasters in the world from 1900 to present. The database is compiled from various sources, including UN agencies, non-governmental organisations, insurance companies, research institutes and press agencies.
Global Risk Data Platform is a multiple agencies effort to share spatial data information on global risk from natural hazards. Users can visualise, download or extract data on past hazardous events, human & economical hazard exposure and risk from natural hazards. It covers tropical cyclones and related storm surges, drought, earthquakes, biomass fires, floods, landslides, tsunamis and volcanic eruptions.
Publications and Case Studies
Planning a Resilient Power Sector
The provision of reliable, secure, and affordable electricity is essential to power economic growth and development. The power system is at risk from an array of natural, technological, and man-made threats that can cause everything from power interruption to chronic undersupply. It is critical for policymakers, planners, and system operators to safeguard their systems and plan for and invest in the improved resilience of the power sector in their countries. Through holistic resilience planning, actors can anticipate, prepare for, and adapt to the threats and stresses on the power system. Resilience planning identifies the threats, impacts, and vulnerabilities to the power system, and devises strategies to mitigate them.
Understanding Power System Threats and Impacts
Understanding potential threats to a power system is an essential first step in supporting power sector resilience. It is important to assess both current and future threats, as well as the likelihood of these threats over time. Threats can be grouped in three categories: natural threats, technological threats, and human-caused threats.
Promoting Resilience in the Energy Sector
There is an urgent need in the APEC region to enhance the resilience of energy infrastructure to reduce the impact from natural and man-made disasters, and climate change. APEC economies face 70 per cent of all global natural disasters. Energy systems are further stressed by exploding growth and urbanization across the APEC region. This project supported a three-day workshop focusing on capacity-building training on the methodology for evaluating and addressing climate change risks to the power sector, with guidance on Integrated Resource and Resilience Planning, hydropower risk screening, and provided guidance for identifying and evaluating measures for addressing a range of climate risks across power sector components. The workshop was designed to help participants build capacity through presentations and interactive exercises and share experiences and best practices from power sector practitioners engaged in climate resilient planning. This report describes the workshop proceedings and outcomes.
